Where's the Plan?
In the July 17, 2006, issue of The Nation, now available on-line (www.thenation.com/doc/20060717/berman), Ari Berman writes about what did NOT happen on June 6 -- Francine Busby did not turn out the vote to win the special election in San Diego for the 50th Congressional District (Duke Cunningham's old district). Berman asks, "where's the Democrats' plan for voter mobilization?"
Berman notes that elections are won on the 3 M's -- message, money and mobilization. In Busby's special election, when they knew that turnout would be low, they focused on those who voted in 2004 who did not vote in 2002 -- the "dropoff voters." Busby's message was arguably OK, though there was some concern about a late Busby gaffe when she told voters that "they didn't need papers to be able to vote." What she meant was that you could vote even if you didn't have your state-issued voter ID card, but what Republicans heard -- and what became the last-minute ads -- was "Busby wants illegal aliens to vote." Busby's campaign worked hard, and they raised a lot of money for a special election, but the Republicans spent twice as much money and made 6 times as many phone calls. Republican Brian Bilbray won by 4 percent. Busby got only half as many votes as John Kerry had received in 2004 -- which is actually not a bad turnout for a special election, but nowhere near good enough when the Republicans are running flat out. Berman's conclusion is basically the same as the conclusion from 2004 -- despite all of the current reasons why the electoral climate should be trending to the Democrats, Republicans are still better at the money and mobilization aspects of campaigning.
We saw that in 2004 in Ohio -- Democrats worked extremely hard in Ohio, but Republicans mobilized their people better. Democrats spent money in Ohio, but Republicans spent more.
Berman's article asks the question, "Where's the Plan, Democrats?" He describes campaign officials and party workers waiting around for Howard Dean to come out with the Master Plan, which, when handed down on stone tablets, will turn things around.
Berman's article reflects a fundamental problem with Democrats and pundits. Elections aren't won by pundits. Elections aren't won by local party officials waiting for some Master Plan to be handed down from on high. Elections are won by local party officials looking around and saying, "Who can we bring to the table? Who will knock on doors for us? Who will help get people to knock on doors?" Elections aren't won by having a lot of money in the bank on June 30; they are won by having enough money in the bank on August 31 to be able to run advertisements when people are paying attention.
So what do we do in 2006?
The glib answer is, "well, just work harder and collect and spend more money."
Let me re-phrase the question. What do we in Virginia do in 2006 to elect Jim Webb and Democratic Congressional candidates?
We knock on more doors than we have ever knocked on. We make more phone calls than we have ever made. We make a campaign contribution that is bigger than what we made last year. We get 2 friends to come knock on doors with us.
I have talked with a lot of local Democratic party leaders in Virginia in the last few weeks. Many of them are waiting for the Master Plan. I have talked with some folks connected with Jim Webb's campaign about coming out with at least some sense of a Master Plan, if only because too many local folks are waiting for one. So far none has been communicated. In fairness to Webb, he has only been a statewide candidate for three weeks, and there is a lot of deciding to do. What I have gotten from the higher-ups is that there will not likely be any field offices, at least not any time soon, and that any canvassing efforts that are organized will not likely conflict with any activities that may come later. So here are things that can be done even without a Master Plan handed down from on high.
1. If you are a Democrat in a Congressional district with a Democratic Congressional candidate whose campaign is organized for grassroots voter contact, let's figure that that campaign will take the lead in doing the door-to-door canvassing. If you're in the Fifth, I know that Al Weed's campaign is doing canvassing even now. Let's face it -- if a voter is going to vote for Al Weed, she's going to vote for Jim Webb too. The same should be true in the other districts, though I understand that there is no Democratic candidate in the Fourth or the Sixth. But that Congressional canvassing operation should be the primary focus of grassroots action in that area.
2. If you are a Democrat in a Congressional District that does NOT have a Democratic Congressional candidate, or if you have one who doesn't seem to be organizing for a massive grassroots voter contact operation, your local jurisdiction committee needs to see itself as an extension of the Webb campaign. The "boots on the ground", to use the military metaphor. You can get campaign materials from the Webb campaign and organize yourselves to get out there. It is important, though, that the local committee not think that it can get going on Labor Day. The organization effort needs to start now.
3. Under FEC regulations, every local committee is allowed to spend up to $5,000 for campaign materials -- yardsigns, bumperstickers, etc. -- provided that they distribute those using volunteers and not paid party staff. Each local committee should do that. Buy 1,000 yardsigns -- bought in bulk, they cost about $1.50 a piece, and most people will chip in $5 if asked. Buy 1,000 bumperstickers for 35 cents a piece and ask for $1 from people. When we did this in 2002 and 2004, the Charlottesville Democratic Committee actually turned a profit on the sale of bumperstickers and yardsigns. This can also start now. A yard sign that is up for 4 months will be seen by more people than a yard sign that goes up in October.
4. Go to organizations like the Sierra Club or the NAACP or Ducks Unlimited -- any group that has an interest in the issues that are involved in these races. Ask if you can send a mailing to their mailing list for contributions and volunteers. Speak at their meeting in August or September (October is too late). If the organization wants to maintain "neutrality," ask that they schedule a meeting at which a representative of the Democrats and a representative of the Republicans can come and speak. If you choose the group carefully, you know that the members will agree with you -- what you want to do is to persuade them that it is important that they get involved NOW, as individuals. You aren't looking for corporate action -- you're looking for action from the individuals. I have found that members of groups like these often don't think they know how to get involved with a campaign -- as though you have to be already in the inner circle to volunteer. So if you make it easy for them to express an interest, they will.
Note that these actions don't require that the Webb campaign do ANYTHING for you, except to provide some campaign materials when you ask.
Back to the 3 M's -- Jim and the Democratic Congressional candidates will have the better Message. We won't have as much Money as George Allen will, but with luck and a lot of hard work, we'll have enough. We need to make up for that deficiency with Mobilization. And we can do that locally, without waiting for the Master Plan.
Lloyd Snook
Berman notes that elections are won on the 3 M's -- message, money and mobilization. In Busby's special election, when they knew that turnout would be low, they focused on those who voted in 2004 who did not vote in 2002 -- the "dropoff voters." Busby's message was arguably OK, though there was some concern about a late Busby gaffe when she told voters that "they didn't need papers to be able to vote." What she meant was that you could vote even if you didn't have your state-issued voter ID card, but what Republicans heard -- and what became the last-minute ads -- was "Busby wants illegal aliens to vote." Busby's campaign worked hard, and they raised a lot of money for a special election, but the Republicans spent twice as much money and made 6 times as many phone calls. Republican Brian Bilbray won by 4 percent. Busby got only half as many votes as John Kerry had received in 2004 -- which is actually not a bad turnout for a special election, but nowhere near good enough when the Republicans are running flat out. Berman's conclusion is basically the same as the conclusion from 2004 -- despite all of the current reasons why the electoral climate should be trending to the Democrats, Republicans are still better at the money and mobilization aspects of campaigning.
We saw that in 2004 in Ohio -- Democrats worked extremely hard in Ohio, but Republicans mobilized their people better. Democrats spent money in Ohio, but Republicans spent more.
Berman's article asks the question, "Where's the Plan, Democrats?" He describes campaign officials and party workers waiting around for Howard Dean to come out with the Master Plan, which, when handed down on stone tablets, will turn things around.
Berman's article reflects a fundamental problem with Democrats and pundits. Elections aren't won by pundits. Elections aren't won by local party officials waiting for some Master Plan to be handed down from on high. Elections are won by local party officials looking around and saying, "Who can we bring to the table? Who will knock on doors for us? Who will help get people to knock on doors?" Elections aren't won by having a lot of money in the bank on June 30; they are won by having enough money in the bank on August 31 to be able to run advertisements when people are paying attention.
So what do we do in 2006?
The glib answer is, "well, just work harder and collect and spend more money."
Let me re-phrase the question. What do we in Virginia do in 2006 to elect Jim Webb and Democratic Congressional candidates?
We knock on more doors than we have ever knocked on. We make more phone calls than we have ever made. We make a campaign contribution that is bigger than what we made last year. We get 2 friends to come knock on doors with us.
I have talked with a lot of local Democratic party leaders in Virginia in the last few weeks. Many of them are waiting for the Master Plan. I have talked with some folks connected with Jim Webb's campaign about coming out with at least some sense of a Master Plan, if only because too many local folks are waiting for one. So far none has been communicated. In fairness to Webb, he has only been a statewide candidate for three weeks, and there is a lot of deciding to do. What I have gotten from the higher-ups is that there will not likely be any field offices, at least not any time soon, and that any canvassing efforts that are organized will not likely conflict with any activities that may come later. So here are things that can be done even without a Master Plan handed down from on high.
1. If you are a Democrat in a Congressional district with a Democratic Congressional candidate whose campaign is organized for grassroots voter contact, let's figure that that campaign will take the lead in doing the door-to-door canvassing. If you're in the Fifth, I know that Al Weed's campaign is doing canvassing even now. Let's face it -- if a voter is going to vote for Al Weed, she's going to vote for Jim Webb too. The same should be true in the other districts, though I understand that there is no Democratic candidate in the Fourth or the Sixth. But that Congressional canvassing operation should be the primary focus of grassroots action in that area.
2. If you are a Democrat in a Congressional District that does NOT have a Democratic Congressional candidate, or if you have one who doesn't seem to be organizing for a massive grassroots voter contact operation, your local jurisdiction committee needs to see itself as an extension of the Webb campaign. The "boots on the ground", to use the military metaphor. You can get campaign materials from the Webb campaign and organize yourselves to get out there. It is important, though, that the local committee not think that it can get going on Labor Day. The organization effort needs to start now.
3. Under FEC regulations, every local committee is allowed to spend up to $5,000 for campaign materials -- yardsigns, bumperstickers, etc. -- provided that they distribute those using volunteers and not paid party staff. Each local committee should do that. Buy 1,000 yardsigns -- bought in bulk, they cost about $1.50 a piece, and most people will chip in $5 if asked. Buy 1,000 bumperstickers for 35 cents a piece and ask for $1 from people. When we did this in 2002 and 2004, the Charlottesville Democratic Committee actually turned a profit on the sale of bumperstickers and yardsigns. This can also start now. A yard sign that is up for 4 months will be seen by more people than a yard sign that goes up in October.
4. Go to organizations like the Sierra Club or the NAACP or Ducks Unlimited -- any group that has an interest in the issues that are involved in these races. Ask if you can send a mailing to their mailing list for contributions and volunteers. Speak at their meeting in August or September (October is too late). If the organization wants to maintain "neutrality," ask that they schedule a meeting at which a representative of the Democrats and a representative of the Republicans can come and speak. If you choose the group carefully, you know that the members will agree with you -- what you want to do is to persuade them that it is important that they get involved NOW, as individuals. You aren't looking for corporate action -- you're looking for action from the individuals. I have found that members of groups like these often don't think they know how to get involved with a campaign -- as though you have to be already in the inner circle to volunteer. So if you make it easy for them to express an interest, they will.
Note that these actions don't require that the Webb campaign do ANYTHING for you, except to provide some campaign materials when you ask.
Back to the 3 M's -- Jim and the Democratic Congressional candidates will have the better Message. We won't have as much Money as George Allen will, but with luck and a lot of hard work, we'll have enough. We need to make up for that deficiency with Mobilization. And we can do that locally, without waiting for the Master Plan.
Lloyd Snook
posted by Cvllelaw at 7:40 AM
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